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I am Mengheng Li, Lecturer (assistant professor) at Economics Discipline Group, University of Technology Sydney. Before working at UTS, I was a Research Analyst at the Economic Research and Policy Division, the Dutch Central Bank

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Research interests: Time series econometrics

  • Dynamic time series models
  • Nonlinear non-Gaussian state space models
  • Empirical macroeconomics
  • Bayesian econometrics

Publications

1. Long term forecasting of El Niño events via dynamic factor simulations, with S.J. Koopman, R. Lit, and D. Petrova. Journal of EconometricsDOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2019.05.004.

2. Forecasting economic time series using score-driven models with mixed-data sampling, with P. Gorgi and S.J. Koopman. International Journal of ForecastingDOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.11.005.

3. Unobserved components and stochastic volatility in U.S. Inflation: Estimation and signal extraction, with S.J. Koopman. Forthcoming at Journal of Applied Econometrics.

4. Are long-run output growth rates falling? with I. Mendieta-Muñoz.  MetroeconomicaDOI:https://doi.org/10.1111/meca.12275 2018-02. Best Paper Award of the International Network for Economic Research (INFER) Annual Conference.

Working papers

1. Leverage, asymmetry and heavy tails in the high-dimensional factor stochastic volatility model, with M. Scharth. R&R JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & ECONOMICS STATISTICSUTS Business School Economics Discipline Group Working Paper Series: 2018-49. Paper

2. Look for the stars: Estimating the natural rate of interest, with I. Hindrayanto. R&R MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS. Paper

3. The multivariate simultaneous unobserved components model and identification via heteroskedasticity, with I. Mendieta-Muñoz. UTS Business School Economics Discipline Group Working Paper Series: 2019-08.  Paper

Work in progress

1. Univariate treatment of multivariate latent stationary processes when they are superimposed

2. Volatility in commonality or commonality in volatility? with S. Wang

3. U.S. shocks and the uncovered interest rate parity, with B. Fu.


Education:

  • 2013-2018 Ph.D. in Econometrics, VU University Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute, the Netherlands; Ph.D. committee: prof.S.J. Koopman; prof.A. Lucas; prof.D.J.C. van Dijk; prof.S.J.G. van Wijnbergen; prof.C.G.H. Diks; prof.A. Harvey; dr.P. Gorgi; dr.H. Karabiyik
  • 2016 Visiting Ph.D., Discipline of Business Analytics, The University of Sydney, Australia
  • 2013-2015 M.Phil. in Economics (cum laude), University of Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute, the Netherlands
  • 2010-2013 B.Sc. in Econometrics and Operations Research (cum laude), Tilburg University, the Netherlands

Contact

Address:
Economics Discipline Group
University of Technology Sydney
Room CB08.09.016, Building 8, Dr Chau Chak Wing Building
14 – 28 Ultimo Road, Ultimo,  NSW 2007
Sydney, Australia

Email:
Mengheng.Li[at]uts.edu.au

Work phone:
+61(02) 9514 4375